About

INFER is a forecasting ledger, not a prediction market. There are no payouts, no odds, and no way to profit from being right beyond a lower Brier score and a place on the Judgment leaderboard.

Every forecast costs a fixed amount of $INFER, sent to a treasury wallet with an on-chain memo, so that committing to a probability has a real, verifiable cost - but that cost is not staked against an outcome and it is not returned or multiplied. It exists to keep forecasts from being free opinions.

What is measured is calibration: whether the probabilities a forecaster states track how often things actually happen. A forecaster who is consistently 70% confident should be right about 70% of the time. The Brier score used on the Judgment page is a standard, well-studied way to measure that - see Methods for the exact mechanics.

INFER holds no funds beyond what a wallet transfers when submitting a forecast, runs no off-chain database of positions, and makes no discretionary call on any market's outcome. Every number on this site is derived, in the browser or in the API route, from data that is already public on Solana.